Do Sure Bets Really Exist ?
Many blogs and websites talk about sure bets. But is this betting strategy really safe? What also means that they are safe? Can they be a source of income? Can you make a living on them?
To answer these questions, it is first necessary to have a clear understanding of what the sure bets are. Some talk about trading when sure bets come into play and say with extreme certainty that there is no risk. In my opinion, this is not the case and I will explain it to you further. But let’s go in order.
The Mechanics Of Sure Bets
It is normal for bookmakers’ odds to change over time, from the moment of their publication to closing odds. This is known as odds variation and it happen in any kind of sports. Just as it is normal that not all bookies make changes in the odds at the same time. For this reason, it may be that two bookmakers price the two possible outcomes of the same event in a very different way. When this difference is such as to allow a win regardless of the results we are facing a sure bet.
Let’s make an example on over / under 2.5 goals market. The over in the match between Tottenham and Chelsea is priced 2.05 on Bet365. The Under in the same match is at 2.10 on William Hill. Using one of the many online calculators you can see how you will get a mathematical win regardless of the outcome:
|Under 2.5||2.10||$ 49.40||$103.73|
|Over 2.5||2.05||$ 50.60||$103.73|
This is precisely what is called sure betting. Placing $ 49.40 on the under and $ 50.60 on the over will generate a definite profit of $ 3.73 regardless of the final number of goals. To find out if there is a sure bet, simply do the following calculation:
100 / odds 1 = 100 / 2.10 = 47.61
100 / odds 2 = 100 / 2.05 = 48.78
If the sum of first and second division is less than 100 then you’ve found a sure bet
In this case: the sum of 47.61 and 48.78 is smaller than 100, because 96.39 is smaller than 100.
The profits of this activity are variable and depend on the situations. In some circumstances, double-digit profits may occur.
The worldwide coverage of events by the major bookmakers obviously multiplied the profit opportunities in sports betting. This has led to the proliferation of people interested in this type of activity as well as the number of online sites that offer an arbitrage system.
Sure Bets: All that glitters is not gold
But is everything really that easy? The answer is no, and I sincerely advise against the practice of sure bets for a variety of reasons listed below.
Often sure bets generate very limited income from a large economic investment
To obtain earnings worthy of this definition at the end of the month because of the time invested, it is necessary to invest a considerable amount of capital. In fact, we will most often find ourselves with profits from sure bets of less than 10%. Which means having to make numerous bets on the various bookmakers to be able to get a profit that was worth the effort.
You are forced to use online services that track sure bets in real time
Without an automatic sure bets reporting service, it is practically impossible to do it manually. Which means having to shell out dozens if not hundreds of dollars that will erode the total profit generated monthly.
Need to have many different accounts on bookmakers that must all be duly funded
In order to take advantage of all the opportunities many accounts are needed on different betting sites. However, not all bookmakers are accessible from every nation. In fact many of them do not have licenses valid all over the world but limited to some countries. Therefore, fewer bookmakers mean less sure bets and then lower profits in the long run.
Movements in odds that can be very harmful
One of the worst nightmares for arbitrage bettors is the change in odds before the bet is over. Think, for example, of a bet on the match odds market with 3 outcomes. After placing the first two bets (Home and Draw), logged on the third book, the bettor finds a different and lower price for the Away selection. If he is lucky he can get out with a reduced profit from the sure bet but some cases even with a loss…
Mistakes in the insertion of stakes can frustrate weeks of profits
Once again let’s think about match odds. After betting on home and away teams, you may find that you have placed the wrong stake on the draw. At that point you have to change the amount bet on home and away to balance everything. Provided that the odds have not changed in the meantime. Or stake limits may be triggered. And on condition that the funds on the account of the books are not over. As you can see the sure bets are not so sure …
High risk of closing accounts by bookmakers, because they do not like this type of activity
Those who practice sure bets are often quickly intercepted by bookmakers. They contrast this type of activity as they consider it a parasitic practice. In fact, bettors to bring back the calculations are induced to place numerically “strange” bets, that is, not round numbers. E.g. 52 $ or, even worse, 52.33 $ instead of 50 $ as it is normal for a mug punter…. As soon as they are intercepted, arbitrage bectors regularly end up having their accounts closed.
You are forced to continuously move money from one bookie to another to balance accounts
Unless you use very few bookmakers (and therefore earn very little cause you’ll place a few sure bets) you are forced to have many accounts. Inevitably, some will empty themselves and others will fill up, based on the progress of the winnings. So much of the time will be spent handling the accounts. Considering that sometimes it takes days to move the money, this will also lead to long periods of inactivity.
Different betting limits for each bookmaker
Another big nightmare for arbitrage bettors are betting limits. Each bookmaker accepts a certain amount of money for each selection. There are some bookmakers who are willing to accept very few cents on certain events. So you are forced to bet first on those bookmakers and then go to end the bet on those that usually give less problems. But this is a rule that has its exceptions and it can happen that even reliable books often impose limitations on a certain market. This depends on the flow of bets, which is not predictable a priori. Therefore it can happen that a sure bet remains open on a selection and must be closed elsewhere with less profit or even at a loss.
In conclusion, as you can understand arbitrage betting is not a safe and profitable activity in the long term. For further information you can visit this link while here you can find a sure bets calculator.