Value Bets: What Are They Really ?
If you really want to be a winning football bettor in the long term the first thing you have to understand is that without using value bets there’s no profit.
The concept of value betting is closely connected with the concept of odds. Let’s look deeper. As we will show you further, the price of an outcome in soccer (e.g. Liverpool winning against Chelsea) is much more than the amount you can expect to win: it expresses some way the probability (odds) that the event occur.
In this article we will show you the process to find value bets, separating the betting forecasts (the prediction) from the current prices.
In the process above the main role is played by statistical data, in conjunction with other informations. In this way a 1×2 football prediction (for example) can be generated, and produce a profit in the long term, only if – let’s remember – it contains a value bet.
Price vs Prediction (also known as “tip”)
First of all let’s remember what’s the meaning of the price in the betting market, let’s put it simply: it’s the amount of money that I could win if the event ends as expected. For example, if Liverpool’s price for winning the match is 1.50 playing against West Ham, for every pound bet the amount won will be half pound. But at the moment we don’t know if the price of 1.50 contains a value bet or not.
On the other hand, a football winning prediction (another way we can call a value bet) expresses what are the supposed probabilities of a certain event to occur. So, taking the example above if I think that Liverpool’s odds of winning the match are 80%, comparing price and odds I can verify if there’s any value for the price offered by the bookmaker. This is due to the fact that every price is related to a prediction, and conversely each prediction is related to a price.
In fact, a Bookmaker’s price is an assessment in terms of likelihood of an event happening. The link between odds and probabilities is expressed by the following formula:
Odds % = 100/price
In the example above we will get: 100/1.5 = 67%. These are Bookmaker’s odds for Liverpool winning the match.
For the same reason our prediction can be translated into a price using the inverse formula: 100/odds = decimal price. In the example above: 80% of probability is equal to 100/80 = 1.25 decimal price.
“Ok, and then? What do you mean ? Where is the value bet ?” This is what I think you are wondering…
Well, to understand the meaning of value bets follow my reasoning. If you estimated in 80% the odds of Liverpool winning against West Ham, then you calculated in 1.25 the minimum fair price for placing a bet. It means that statistically you will win 4 out of 5 bets (because 80% of 5, is 4); if you bet on odds of 1.25 (i.e. those corresponding to the prediction) and always bet 1 pound, then most likely you will win (1.25 x 4) 5 pounds (i.e. you will be even). If you bet on higher prices (always keeping on 80% predictions) then you’ll have a chance to make money.
So, always assuming that the value bets are correct, if the odds from the prediction are less than the price offered by the bookmaker, then it is advisable to make the bet; that doesn’t mean you are going to win all bets, but in the long term (after so many bets), you’ll be in profit. The probability of being in profit, however, is linked to the accuracy of predictions and to the number of bets: the greater the number the greater the probability.
Are you able to make 100% accurate predictions? Then are you sure that you can detect value bets ? Unfortunately no human is able to make 100% sure predictions, but it is reasonable to try to get as close as possible to the accuracy…..so you should make predictions more adherent to reality than the Bookmakers do. The only way is to be more competent, at least in the games considered, than the bookmakers, identifying best odds that are realistically overvalued. It’s not that easy, and you have to be very skilled at making predictions. Otherwise you can rely on Bia – the Betting artificial intelligence of the future – and get your edge on the bookmakers. With me football prediction using machine learning is reality!
Let’s Find a Value Bet
Would you like to see how manually find a value bet ? Let’s make an example (warning: this is just an example – don’t use it to place bets because this is only part of a very much more complex strategy; if you want use it for paper betting).
First step in the hunt for value bets : record bookmakers odds for a match. In this case we’ve chosen Uefa Champions League match RB Leipzig vs Tottenham Hotspour, as shown below:
|Ten Bookmakers more …
Second step in the hunt for value bets : in the page you can see the odds of many bookmakers, but at the end of the page you have to calculate the average price and to find the highest price.
Let’s assume that the average odds represent the real value of each team in this match. Comparing, e.g. highest price for Leipzig to average we can find a difference of 0.10 point between two odds (value bet found !). Let’s translate prices into probabilities using the formula explained above:
Average: 100/1.57 = 63.69%
Highest: 100/1.67 = 59.88% (888Sport)
Expected value: 63.69% – 59.88% = 3.81%
This is a raw value bet anyway and couldn’t be used to place a bet on Leipzig on 888Sport betting site; but you get the idea about the process involved in finding value bets.
Bia’s artificial intelligence mixes this and hundreds of other factors to generate daily dozens of very reliable value bets with a high and astonishing win rate in conjunction with a reliable money management.
So, don’t doubt, enlist to Resistance and follow my value bets to make big profits in the long term and prevent the bookmakers’ dictatorship (aka DEVIL) become true!